Global vegetable oil production declines: what to expect in the near future

Vegetable oils are not only healthy but also highly in demand. They are widely used across food, cosmetic, and even pharmaceutical industries. Each year, their popularity grows as new applications emerge.

However, a noticeable decline in vegetable oil production has recently come to light. This was reported by Thomas Mielke, Editor-in-Chief of «OIL WORLD» and CEO of «ISTA», during the international grain conference «Grain Ukraine».

Mielke emphasized that in the current season, global vegetable oil consumption increased by 0.3%, while production has been declining for two consecutive years.

Production falls for eight key types of vegetable oil

According to Mielke, farmers worldwide are ramping up soybean cultivation, but even this increase has not been sufficient to cover the growing shortage of vegetable fats. Over the past two years, the production of eight major types of vegetable oil has significantly declined.

This season, the global output of soybean oil grew by just 1.8 million tonnes, a steep drop compared to the 5 million tonnes added last year. Meanwhile, sunflower oil production fell by 2.7 million tonnes compared to the previous season, which also impacted global export volumes.

Another critical factor affecting global vegetable oil logistics is the ongoing war in Ukraine, now in its third year.

Mielke also pointed out that in 2025, Argentina and Brazil are expected to hold the largest soybean reserves, ensuring relatively stable exports from these countries throughout the year.

However, global markets must closely watch U.S. foreign policy. Any escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions, especially under Trump’s influence, could affect soybean prices and disrupt supply volumes.

Agricultural Forecast: Soy Surplus, Sunflower and Corn Shortages

Current forecasts for 2025–2026 from agri-market analysts indicate a global surplus of soybeans, but ongoing shortages of sunflower and corn. This imbalance may reshape trade flows and market strategies worldwide.

Ukrainian vegetable oil market: what’s changing?

After extensive debate, the Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) approved a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed. Originally proposed as a separate bill, the provision was ultimately included in Law No. 13157, unrelated to agriculture.

The goal of this policy is to boost domestic processing of grains and oilseeds. In 2024–2025, the total capacity of Ukrainian oil processing plants is estimated at 21.7 million tonnes.

For Ukrainian consumers, this means more soybean oil and rapeseed oil will appear on store shelves. However, concerns remain about the quality of these oils. Large manufacturers often use refining, deodorization, and winterization methods to increase yield, but these processes can compromise the oil’s nutritional value.

Which vegetable oils are the healthiest?

The only way to obtain truly natural and healthy vegetable oils is through cold pressing. Although this method is not the most productive, it is eco-friendly and preserves the nutritional integrity of the oil, producing what is known as «live oil».

CraftOil, a Ukrainian producer of premium craft oils, offers a wide and ever-expanding range of cold-pressed products. Try our sunflower oil, corn oil, or more exotic options like hazelnut oil, black cumin oil, walnut kernel oil, mustard oil, and others made from various seeds and nuts.

CraftOil also offers a profitable opportunity to become an oil producer. Our catalog features a variety of oil presses, equipped with everything needed to start oil extraction at home or in small businesses.

Interested in learning how to press your own oils at home? Not sure which press to choose? Our support team is here to help — just send a request via our website.